A model for estimating abundance of cattle grub (Diptera: Oestridae) from the proportion of uninfested cattle as determined by serology*

A model is presented for determining the abundance of cattle grubs in the backs of calves from the proportion of uninfested calves in a herd. The distribution of grubs in calves' backs was compared with the negative binomial, but no relationships were found among the distribution parameters, suggesting that the negative binomial is an inappropriate choice for the basis of a sampling model. The relationship between the mean number of grubs per animal (mean), variance (delta 2), and proportion of uninfested calves (p0) in a herd was determined and used as the basis for the sampling model. The relationship between p0 and p0e determined using serology (ELISA)] was evaluated. The variance of estimates of mean grubs per animal based on the regression model and uncertainty due to using p0e as an estimate of p0 was examined. A test of the model indicated that p0e could be used to obtain a reliable estimate of mean grubs per animal and that the method would be applicable for monitoring grub populations, assessing chemical control programmes, and determining release rates of sterile insects for control.