Plasma bicarbonate and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background:

Several biomarkers of metabolic acidosis, including lower plasma bicarbonate and higher anion gap, have been associated with greater insulin resistance in cross-sectional studies. We sought to examine whether lower plasma bicarbonate is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a prospective study.

Methods:

We conducted a prospective, nested case–control study within the Nurses’ Health Study. Plasma bicarbonate was measured in 630 women who did not have type 2 diabetes mellitus at the time of blood draw in 1989–1990 but developed type 2 diabetes mellitus during 10 years of follow-up. Controls were matched according to age, ethnic background, fasting status and date of blood draw. We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for diabetes by category of baseline plasma bicarbonate.

Results:

After adjustment for matching factors, body mass index, plasma creatinine level and history of hypertension, women with plasma bicarbonate above the median level had lower odds of diabetes (OR 0.76, 95% confidence interval CI] 0.60–0.96) compared with women below the median level. Those in the second (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.67–1.25), third (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51–0.97) and fourth (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.54–1.05) quartiles of plasma bicarbonate had lower odds of diabetes compared with those in the lowest quartile (p for trend = 0.04). Further adjustment for C-reactive protein did not alter these findings.

Interpretation:

Higher plasma bicarbonate levels were associated with lower odds of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus among women in the Nurses’ Health Study. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding in different populations and to elucidate the mechanism for this relation.Resistance to insulin is central to the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.¹ Several mechanisms may lead to insulin resistance and thereby contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus, including altered fatty acid metabolism, mitochondrial dysfunction and systemic inflammation.² Metabolic acidosis may also contribute to insulin resistance. Human studies using the euglycemic and hyperglycemic clamp techniques have shown that mild metabolic acidosis induced by the administration of ammonium chloride results in reduced tissue insulin sensitivity.³ Subsequent studies in rat models have suggested that metabolic acidosis decreases the binding of insulin to its receptors.^4,5 Finally, metabolic acidosis may also increase cortisol production,⁶ which in turn is implicated in the development of insulin resistance.⁷Recent epidemiologic studies have shown an association between clinical markers of metabolic acidosis and greater insulin resistance or prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, both lower serum bicarbonate and higher anion gap (even within ranges considered normal) were associated with increased insulin resistance among adults without diabetes.⁸ In addition, higher levels of serum lactate, a small component of the anion gap, were associated with higher odds of prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study⁹ and with higher odds of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in a retrospective cohort study of the risk factors for diabetes in Swedish men.¹⁰ Other biomarkers associated with metabolic acidosis, including higher levels of serum ketones,¹¹ lower urinary citrate excretion¹² and low urine pH,¹³ have been associated in cross-sectional studies with either insulin resistance or the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, it is unclear whether these associations are a cause or consequence. We sought to address this question by prospectively examining the association between plasma bicarbonate and subsequent development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a nested case–control study within the Nurses’ Health Study.