浅山区乡镇社会-生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟——以北京平谷为例

浅山区乡镇社会-生态系统相比于平原区受地形环境等因素制约更为脆弱,在国土空间开发与保护中更需要权衡。使用显式空间脆弱性(SERV)模型,从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个维度构建评价体系评估平谷浅山区12个乡镇社会-生态系统脆弱性,并使用有序加权平均算法(OWA)模拟多种决策风险下脆弱性情景。研究表明：(1)平谷浅山区2007-2017年总体脆弱性呈现中度脆弱水平,局部呈现上升态势,10年间中等以上脆弱乡镇面积比重由73.09%上升到80.74%。空间上呈现"东南高,西北低"的格局。(2)处于高脆弱水平乡镇应进行严格控制,增加水土保持林面积等提高适应能力;同时注重低脆弱乡镇的高暴露风险源及时进行生态修复。(3)通过设定不同决策风险系数预测不同发展导向下区域系统脆弱性差异,在倾向于可持续发展导向下优先生态环境治理,在经济发展导向下应推动绿色基础设施建设。评价结果可满足不同决策思路下指导区域发展实践。

The vulnerability evolution and simulation of town's social ecosystem in shallow mountain area:A case study of Pinggu District in Beijing

Compared with the plain area, the town''s social-ecosystem in shallow mountain area is more vulnerable to the constraints of topographic environment and other factors, and needs to be weighed in the development and protection of land space. Using the SERV (Spatially Explicit Resilience Vulnerability) model, this paper constructs an evaluation system from three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability to evaluate the social ecosystem vulnerability of 12 towns in Pinggu shallow mountain area, and uses OWA (Ordered Weighted Averaging) to simulate the vulnerability scenarios under various decision risks. The results show that:(1) from 2007 to 2017, the overall vulnerability of Pinggu shallow mountain area presented a moderate vulnerability level, and the local vulnerability level showed an upward trend. In the past 10 years, the proportion of vulnerable towns above medium increased from 73.09% to 80.74%. Spatially, it presents a pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. (2) Towns at a high vulnerability level should be controlled to increase the area of soil and water conservation forests; At the same time, we should pay attention to the high exposure risk sources of low vulnerable towns, carry out ecological restoration in time, and narrow the vulnerability difference between the north and the south. (3) By setting different decision-making risk coefficients, the future scenarios predict the vulnerability differences of regional systems under different development orientations. The government gives priority to the management of the ecological environment under the sustainable development scenario and promotes the construction of green infrastructure under the economic development scenario. The evaluation results can meet the requirements of guiding regional development practice under different decision-making ideas.