基于综合承载力的吉林省适度人口分析

运用状态空间法构建区域适度人口模型,利用主成分分析求取权重,对2005—2014年吉林省适度人口进行测算,并探讨其形成原因,提出解决对策.结果表明: 2005—2014年,吉林省适度人口一直处于赤字状态,说明吉林省人口、资源与环境处于一种不协调状态;吉林省资源承载人口显著高于经济承载人口和生态承载人口,说明吉林省经济发展是以牺牲环境为代价;吉林省土地资源承载人口远高于水资源承载人口和能源承载人口,处于赤字状态,说明吉林省经济发展是以耗竭自身能源和水资源为基础.今后应因地制宜,提高水资源承载力;开发新能源,提高能源利用效率;由粗放型、消耗型资源利用方式向集约型、低碳型转变;改变人类的生产方式和消费模式,注重保护生态环境.

Optimum population analysis of Jilin Province,China based on comprehensive carrying capacity.

The regional moderate population model was constructed using state-space method, and the weights of relevant factors were obtained using principal component analysis. The optimum population of Jilin Province during 2005-2014 was calculated and the causes for its formation were discussed. The results showed that the optimum population of Jilin Province was in deficit from 2005-2014, and the imbalance existed between the population, resources and environment. The resources carrying population was significantly higher than the economic carrying and the ecological carrying population, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was established at the expense of destroying the environment. Moreover, the land resources carrying population was substantially higher than the water and energy carrying population, which was at a deficit, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was based on the depletion of energy and water resources. In the future, water resources carrying capacity should be improved according to the local conditions, the energy efficiency should be enhanced via the development of new energy sources, the extensive and consumption-based resource utilization should be transformed to the intensive and low-carbon type, and the production mode and consumption patterns should be changed to protect the ecological environment.