Predicting the phenology of codling moth,Cydia pomonella,for sustainable pest management in Swiss apple orchards

The effects of temperature on post‐diapause development, female lifespan, and reproduction of Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were studied under controlled conditions to determine the respective parameters for a temperature‐driven phenology model. Lower thermal thresholds of 10.0 and 9.7 °C and thermal constants of 417.2 and 427.7 degree days were established for post‐diapause development of females and males, respectively. Female lifespan was found to be 202.6 degree days on average, with a lower thermal threshold of 11.2 °C. Total fecundity was highest at 27.7 °C with an average of 241.9 eggs per female. Literature data were used to quantify the lower thermal thresholds and the thermal constants for eggs, larvae, and pupae. For validation, the model was run with weather data from 13 consecutive years and the output was compared with pheromone trap catches from 39 to 63 different orchards, depending on the year. The model proved to be a reliable and useful tool to forecast codling moth phenology under Swiss conditions not only for a whole growing season but also during several years with very variable weather conditions. Hence, it can be used to support apple growers in pest management decisions on the one hand and to predict changes in codling moth phenology with respect to climate change on the other.