Race, childhood insulin, childhood caloric intake, and class 3 obesity at age 24: 14-year prospective study of schoolgirls

The prevalence of Class 3 obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m²) has more than doubled in the past 25 years. In a 14‐year prospective study from age 10 to 24 of a biracial schoolgirl cohort (293 black, 256 white), we assessed childhood correlates of Class 3 BMI at age 24. Of 42 girls with Class 3 BMI at age 24, 36 (86%) were black. By logistic regression, significant explanatory variables of Class 3 BMI at age 24 included top decile waist circumference at age 11 (odds ratio (OR) 5.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3–13.9, P = 0.0002), age 10 BMI ≥ the Center for Disease Control (CDC) 2000 top 15% (OR 7.0, 95% CI 2.5–19.3, P = 0.0002), and a three‐way interaction between race, childhood insulin, and average caloric intake from age 10 to age 19 (for each unit increase, OR 1.7 95% CI 1.3–2.2, P = 0.0003). Age 10 BMI, age 11 waist circumference, and interaction of race, childhood insulin, and childhood caloric intake predict Class 3 obesity in young adulthood, facilitating childhood identification of girls at high risk for developing Class 3 obesity.