An investigation of relationships between climate and dengue using a water budgeting technique |
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Authors: | Schreiber K V |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography P.O. Box 1002, Millersville University of Pennsylvania, Millersville, Pennsylvania 17551-0302, USA e-mail: Kathleen.Schreiber@millersville.edu Fax: +1-717-871-2497, US |
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Abstract: | Climatic water budget indicators were used to assess intra- and interannual variations in dengue incidence for San Juan, Puerto
Rico. Multivariate stochastic relationships between dengue and the water budget were developed to (1) determine and quantify
the particular climatic measures and their associated lag periods related to dengue variations, and (2) assess their use for
dengue prediction and initiation of emergency response procedures. Such a predictive model would be advantageous because it
is based on reliable, easily obtained, and low-cost weather observations. Daily running averages of water budget variables
over an 8-week period were related to daily running averages of unconfirmed dengue totals (1988–1993). Resultant models show
that a variety of water budget and traditional climate measures over the full 8-week period are associated with dengue. The
mean seasonal variation in dengue is highly related (R
2=88.1%) to the mean seasonal climate variation, with those thermal and energy variables immediately preceding the dengue response
showing the strongest relationships. However, moisture variables, predominantly in the form of surplus, are more influential
many weeks in advance. For the interannual model (R
2=44.1%), energy change, thermal change, and moisture variables are significant across the 8-week period, with moisture variables
playing a stronger role than in the intraannual model. Standardisation substantially changes the importance and timing of
the variables, and suggests that dengue during this period is more associated with the mean annual variation of climate than
deviations from mean conditions. A dengue early-warning model (based on 5 weeks of climate data) was also developed to predict
dengue incidence 3 weeks later. While this predictive model is not reliable as a sole predictor of dengue in San Juan, it
may be useful as part of a multifaceted watch/warning system.
Received: 5 September 2000 / Revised: 12 March 2001 / Accepted: 21 March 2001 |
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Keywords: | Dengue Puerto Rico Water budget |
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