Modeling the ecological niche of long-term land use changes: The role of biophysical factors |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy;2. University of Cagliari, DISVA, Viale S. Ignazio 13, 09123 Cagliari, Italy;3. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d''Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Faculté de St-Jérôme, 13397 Marseille Cedex 20, France;4. University of Sfax, Research Unit in Plant Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics in Arid Environment (BIOECOS-MA), Route Soukra km 3.5 BP n° 1171, 3000 Sfax, Tunisia;5. Saint Joseph University, Laboratoire Caractérisation Génomique des Plantes, Rue de Damas BP 17-5208 Mar Mikhaël, 1104 2020 Beirut, Lebanon;6. National Council for Scientific Research Lebanon, P.O. Box 11-8281, Ryad El Solh, 1107 2260 Beirut, Lebanon;7. American University of Beirut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, P.O Box 11-0236, Riad El Solh, 1107 2020 Beirut, Lebanon |
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| Abstract: | Land use/land cover changes (LULCCs) represent the result of the complex interaction between biophysical factors and human activity, acting over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this work is to quantify the role of biophysical factors in constraining the trajectories of land abandonment and urbanization in the last 50 years. A habitat suitability model borrowed from animal ecology was used to analyze the ecological niche of the following LULCC trajectories occurred in Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) during 1954–2008: (i) land abandonment (LA) and (ii) urbanization (URB), both from agricultural areas (URB_agr) and from semi-natural areas (URB_for). Results showed that the different LULCC trajectories were driven by different combinations of biophysical factors, such as climate, topography and soil quality. In particular, slope and elevation resulted as the main driving factors for rural processes, while slope and temperatures resulted as the main constraints underlying urban processes. This approach may represent a conceptual and technical step toward the systematic assessment of LULCC processes, thus providing an effective support tool to inform decision makers about land use transformations, their underlying causes, as well as their possible implications. |
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| Keywords: | Biophysical factors Ecological niche Land abandonment Land use/land cover change Urbanization |
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