Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas |
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| Institution: | 1. Centre for Wildlife Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa;2. Department of Biological, Biomedical and Analytical Sciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, United Kingdom;3. School of Life Sciences, University of Kwazulu-Natal, Westville Campus, Durban 4000, South Africa,;4. Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, WITS 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa;5. All Out Africa Research Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Swaziland, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Swaziland;6. Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology & Entomology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag 20, Hatfield 0028, Pretoria, South Africa;7. Finnish Centre of Excellence in Metapopulation Research, Department of Biosciences, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland;1. Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5020, USA;2. Ecosystem Functions, Institute of Ecology, Scharnhorststraße 1, Leuphana University of Lueneburg, 21335 Lueneburg, Germany;3. Agroecology, Department of Crop Sciences, Grisebachstr. 6, Georg-August-University, 37077 Goettingen, Germany;4. Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla University, Hatyai, Songkhla, 90112, Thailand;5. Chair of Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, Tennenbacher Str. 4, University of Freiburg, 79106 Freiburg, Germany;1. Integrative Biology Department, Michigan State University, 288 Farm Lane, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA;2. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, 1405 S. Harrison Rd., East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA;3. Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, 293 Farm Lane, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA;4. Community Sustainability Department, Michigan State University, 480 Wilson Rd., East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA;1. Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, Knoxville, TN 37996, United States;2. Insect Control and Cotton Disease Research Unit, USDA-ARS, 2771 F&B Road, College Station, TX 77845, United States;3. Department of Biology, Concordia University, 7141 Sherbrooke St., Montreal, QC H4B-1R6, Canada;1. Center for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal;2. Granollers Museum of Natural Sciences, 08402, Granollers, Catalonia, Spain;3. Global Change and Conservation Lab, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland;4. Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK;5. Norwegian College of Fishery Science, University of Tromsø The Arctic University of Norway, Norway;6. Institute of Science and Technics of the Environment (ISTE), University of Fianarantsoa, BP 1264, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar;1. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade Tropical, Universidade Federal do Amapá – UNIFAP, Macapá, AP, Brazil;2. Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, SP, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (～5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ～7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ～9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans. |
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| Keywords: | Land-use change Climate change Chiroptera Conservation Zonation Africa Connectivity |
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