Using climatic suitability thresholds to identify past,present and future population viability |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;2. Deakin University, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Warrnambool Campus, Geelong, Australia;3. Department of Biology, Adnan Menderes University, 09010 Aydin, Turkey;1. University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Piazza della Scienza 1, 20126 Milano, Italy;2. University of Pavia, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy;1. John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;2. School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia;3. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, VIC 3084, Australia;4. Institute for Applied Ecology, The University of Canberra, ACT 2617, Australia;5. Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3086, Australia;6. High Desert Ecological Research Institute, Bend, OR 97702, USA;7. Biology Department, College of William and Mary, PO Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23185, USA;1. Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestrasse 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany;2. Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;1. Laboratoire Écologie, Systématique et Évolution (UMR8079), Faculté des Sciences d''Orsay, Université Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay, France;2. AgroParisTech, CNRS, 91405 Orsay, France;3. Pamukkale Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Biyoloji Bölümü, Denizli, Turkey |
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| Abstract: | Often climatic niche models predict that any change in climatic conditions will impact species abundance or distribution. However, the accuracy of models that just incorporate climatic information to predict future species habitat use is widely debated. Alternatively, environmental conditions may simply need to be above some minimum threshold of climatic suitability, at which point, other factors drive population size. Using the example of nesting sites of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Mediterranean (n = 105), we developed climatic niche models to examine whether a climatic suitability threshold could be identified as a climatic indicator in order for large populations of a widespread species to exist. We then assessed the climatic suitability of sites above and below this threshold in the past (∼1900) and future (∼2100). Most large sites that are currently above the climatic threshold were above the threshold in the past and future, particularly when future nesting seasonality shifted to start 1–2 months earlier. Our analyses highlight the importance of future phenological shifts for maintaining suitability. Our results provide a positive outlook for sea turtle conservation, suggesting that climatic conditions may remain suitable in the future at sites that currently support large nesting populations. Our study also provides an alternative way of interpreting the outputs of climatic niche models, by generating a threshold as an index of a minimum climatic suitability required to sustain large populations. This type of approach offers the possibility to benefit from information provided by climate-driven models, while reducing their inherent uncertainties. |
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| Keywords: | Adaptation to climate change Bioclimate envelope Climatic-based indicator Evolutionary stable strategy Resilience Species persistence |
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