How to obtain a precise and representative estimate for parameters in LCA

Background, Aim and Scope  Quite often there is need for precise and representative parameters in LCA studies. Probably the most relevant have direct influence on the functional unit, whose definition is crucial in the conduct of any LCA. Changes in the functional unit show directly in LCI and LCIA results. In comparative assertions, a bias in the functional unit may lead to a bias in the overall conclusions. Since quantitative data for the functional unit, such as geometric dimensions and specific weight, often vary, the question arises how to determine the functional unit, especially if a comparative assertion shall be representative for a region or market. Aim and scope of the study is to develop and apply methods for obtaining precise and representative estimates for the functional unit as one important parameter in an LCA study. Materials and Methods  Statistical sampling is applied in order to get empirical estimates for the weight of yoghurt cups, as a typical parameter for the functional unit. We used a two-stage sampling design, with stratified sampling in the first stage and three different sampling designs in the second stage, namely stratified, clustered, and a posteriori sampling. Sampling designs are motivated and described. In a case study, they are each used to determined a representative weight for 150 g yoghurt cups in Berlin, at the point of sale and within a specific time. In the first sampling stage, food markets are randomly selected, while in the second stage, yoghurt cups in these food markets are sampled. The sampling methods are applicable due to newly available internet data. These data sources and their shortcomings are described. Results  The random sampling procedure yields representative estimates, which are compared to figures for market leaders, i.e. yoghurt cups with very high occurrence in the supermarkets. While single types of yoghurt cups showed moderate uncertainty, representative estimates were highly precise. Discussion results show, for one, the performance of the applied statistical estimation procedures, and they show further that adding more information in the estimation procedure (on the shape of the cup, on the type of plastic, on the specific brand) helps reducing uncertainty. Conclusions  As conclusions, estimates and their uncertainty depend on the measurement procedure in a sensitive manner; any uncertainty information should be coupled with information on the measurement procedure, and it is recommended to use statistical sampling in order to reduce uncertainty for important parameters of an LCA study. Recommendations and Perspectives  Results for market leaders differed considerably from representative estimates. This implies to not use market leader data, or data with a high market share, as substitute for representative data in LCA studies. Statistical sampling has been barely used for Life Cycle Assessment. It turned out to be a feasible means for obtaining highly precise and representative estimates for the weight of yoghurt cups in the case study, based on empirical analysis. Further research is recommended in order to detect which parameters should best be investigated in LCA case studies; which data sources are available and recommended, and which sampling designs are appropriate for different application cases. ESS-Submission Editor: Seungdo Kim. PhD (kimseun@msu.edu)