Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation |
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Authors: | Franz Essl Stefan Dullinger Dietmar Moser Wolfgang Rabitsch Ingrid Kleinbauer |
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Institution: | 1.Environment Agency Austria,Vienna,Austria;2.Department of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology,University of Vienna,Vienna,Austria;3.Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses,Vienna,Austria |
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Abstract: | Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs,
transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely
cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria
and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within
the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine
Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems.
Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly
or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with
rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become
more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types
(bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate
change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat
loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to
enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively
stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution
to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also
maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire
ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios. |
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