植被系统中植物与环境因子相互作用的动态模拟

本文在综合考虑现有植被发展动态模型的基础上提出包含植被，环境因子，人类或其它外力干扰三者间相互作用情况下的植被系统一般动态模型，并从控制论的角度阐述了植被与环境因子间的耦合，反馈作用。最后以线性逼近和微分拟合的方法求取模型的局部解，进而作出外延预测。实例分析表明，模型预测对实际观测有较好的跟踪性能。

DYNAMIC MODELLING OF PLANT-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS IN A VEGETATION SYSTEM

A general model for the dynamic development of plant communities is proposed with the well-known classical models such as Logistic competition model and Markov model as its special cases. The model is intended to explain and predict the development of a vegetation system based on the interactions among the plants, the environmental quantities and external disturbances to the system. The vegetation system is considered to be a system of feedback control with coupled differential equations for plant measurements and environmental quantities. Finally, the model is linearized locally to give year-by-year prediction based on past and present observations of the system using the least square fit of the time derivatives of the system variables against the variables themselves. This local dynamic model of vegetation system is applicable to any dynamic systems regardless of the linear or nonlinear behavior of the systems.