鄱阳湖生态经济区生态系统服务价值预测与驱动力

鄱阳湖生态经济区是我国第一个上升到国家战略的生态经济区。利用鄱阳湖生态经济区2004、2008、2012、2016年的MODIS数据,获得4个对应期的土地利用/覆盖数据,参照修订的单位面积生态系统服务价值当量表与灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测了2016-2024年(间隔2 a)的生态系统服务价值数据,并对引起生态服系统务价值变化的驱动力进行了分析。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态经济区在2004-2016年间,草地、建设用地和未利用地面积增加,耕地、林地、水域面积减少,但2016-2024年的预测值变化率仅为-0.17%,表明该研究区生态系统服务价值即将进入一个相对稳定的状态;驱动力分析表明,人为综合干扰在空间分布上以中等影响强度干扰为主,城镇化率是区域总生态系统服务价值降低的首要驱动力,其次分别为非农业人口、人口密度、第一产业GDP、第二产业GDP、固定资产投资额、总GDP及第三产业GDP。建议加强土地利用规划与调控,控制城镇化建设用地扩展,调整产业结构、降低污染,促进鄱阳湖生态经济区总生态系统服务价值的提升。

Ecosystem services value prediction and driving forces in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone

The Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone is China''s first ecological economic zone raised to the national strategy. Based on the MODIS data of 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 for the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, the land use/cover of the four corresponding periods were obtained. Ecosystem services value data for 2-year intervals from 2016 to 2024 were predicted according to the revised table of ecosystem services equivalent values per unit area and the grey GM (1,1) model. The driving forces for the change in ecosystem services values were analyzed. The results revealed that from 2004 to 2016, the area of grassland, construction land and unused land increased; the outcome of arable land, forest land and water area turned out to be opposite. While with the ecosystem services value predictive change rate being only -0.17% from 2016 and 2024, it indicated that the regional ecosystem services value would be relatively stable. With reference to the analysis of driving forces, we found that human activities interference remained moderate level in spatial distribution. The urbanization rate was the first driving force that decreased regional total ecosystem services values, followed by the non-agricultural population, population density, the primary industry GDP, the secondary industry GDP, fixed assets investment, total GDP, and the tertiary industry GDP. Strengthening on land use planning and regulation, the expansion of urban construction land control, the industrial structure adjustment, and pollution reduction will promote the improvement in total ecosystem services values of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone.