基于适应性循环理论的区域生态风险时空演变评估——以长江三角洲城市群为例

在城市扩张和气候变化背景下,三角洲社会与生态系统正遭受多方面风险威胁,适应性视角下的区域生态风险评估有助于理解复杂系统与风险影响之间的相互作用,为长江三角洲城市群适应性规划策略提供空间定量参考。以长江三角洲城市群社会-生态系统为研究对象,耦合适应性循环与区域生态风险评估理论,构建"潜力-连通度-韧性"适应性生态风险评估框架,从整体和动态的角度评估区域在当前与未来适应性生态风险的时空分布与各城市所处的适应性循环阶段。结果表明,适应性生态风险由沿海区-城市群-生态区域呈现由较高到高再到低的趋势,大城市外围现已出现较高风险。至2030年,风险整体呈上升趋势,高风险向中小城市和生态区域蔓延。从适应性循环阶段来看,杭州、宁波等14个城市处于生态风险较低的重组阶段。常州、南通等8个城市处于风险升高的开发阶段。上海、南京、无锡和苏州处于城市发展成熟风险开始降低的保护阶段。本研究通过评估长三角城市群适应性生态风险,得到高风险区分布与各个城市的适应性风险趋势,为长三角城市群动态变化下的适应性规划策略制定提供了科学的指导,以实现区域的可持续发展。

Assessment of spatio-temporal evolution of regionally ecological risks based on adaptive cycle theory: a case study of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Under the background of urban expansion and global climate change, the delta social-ecological system is suffering from various risks. Nowadays, it has become a global risk hot spot area and the epitome of global sustainable development. This study assessed the regionally ecological risk of the study area from the perspective of adaptability, which helps to understand the interaction between complex system and risk impact. And it provides a spatial quantitative reference for the adaptive planning strategy of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. It is of great significance to the ecological adaptability planning of the social ecosystem of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The research object of this study is the social ecological system of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. In this study, the adaptive cycle and ecological risk assessment theory were coupled to construct the "potential-connectedness-resilience" adaptive ecological risk assessment framework. From the overall and dynamic point of view, the paper evaluated the current and future adaptive ecological risk, and the adaptive cycle phase of each city in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was further identified and analyzed according to the risk eigenvalues. The results show that the adaptively ecological risk from coastal area to urban agglomeration and ecological region presents a trend from higher to the highest and then to low. Moreover, due to the expansion and development of cities, the suburbs of big cities are now at higher risk. By 2030, the overall ecological risk will increase. The development and construction of small and medium-sized cities, urban expansion and occupation of ecological space and climate change will lead to the spread of the high-risk areas to small-medium cities and ecological regions. In terms of the adaptive cycle stage of ecological risk, 14 cities such as Hangzhou and Ningbo are in reorganization phase with low ecological risk; 8 cities such as Changzhou and Nantong are in the exploitation phase of increased risk; Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi and Suzhou are in the conservation phase. At this stage, the urban development and construction are basically completed, and the regional ecological risk begins to reduce. In the study, the distribution of high-risk areas and the adaptive risk trend of each city were obtained by evaluating the adaptive ecological risk of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. It provides the scientific guidance for the formulation of adaptive planning strategies under the dynamic changes of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, so as to realize the sustainable development of the region. And it promotes the green transformation of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, and forms ecological urban agglomeration of sustainable development.