Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.