华北平原冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划

干旱是华北平原最严重的农业气象灾害之一,是冬小麦产量稳定上升的重要限制因素。本文从冬小麦产量的实际灾损角度,对减产率、发生概率及产量的变异系数等因子进行了分析,构建了华北平原冬小麦干旱产量灾损风险评估模型,并对华北平原冬小麦进行了实际灾损风险区划。结果表明,风险高值区约占该地区19.8%,主要分布于鲁西、鲁西北-冀东北,鲁西南-豫东地区;中值区约占34%,主要分布在冀中南、豫北、豫中和豫西以及山东中部丘陵地区;风险低值区占46.2%,主要集中于鲁中部、南部和豫中南、西南的广大地区。

Risk regionalization of yield loss caused by drought for winter wheat in North China Plain

Drought is one of the most serious agricultural meteorological disasters,and the main limiting factor for raising winter wheat yield in North China.Through analyzing the decrease rate and variation coefficient of winter wheat yield and the occurrence probability of drought,this paper established a risk assessment model of winter wheat drought loss,and completed the risk regionalization of this loss in North China.The results indicated that the high risk area located in the west,northwest and southwest of Shandong Province,northeast of Hebei Province,and east of Henan Province,the medium risk area located in the middle and south of Hebei Province,north,middle and west of Henan Province,and middle hilly areas of Shandong Province,and the low risk area located in the middle and south of Shandong Province,and south and south-west of Henan Province,accounting for 19.8%,34%,and 46.2% of the whole North China,respectively.