Interpreting the demographic changes.

The paper sets out the novel shape of current Western populations as to age composition, and demonstrates that their drastic ageing has been virtually instantaneous. European populations are described as uniquely old, with no precedent whatever in human history. Moreover, all the world''s populations are undergoing the same process, including those of the developing societies, at an even faster pace. The general failure of people at large to recognize the process, and their persistent, entirely anachronistic attitudes to the older members of their societies, is described as cultural lag. The development now beginning of the so-called bean-pole family, vertical kin links between contemporary relatives stretching over four generations or more, with progressively fewer lateral linkages, is sketched out. The necessity of all persons having to live in the presence of their future selves is insisted on, with its corollary about having to pay personally in lowered subsistence levels for the doubled life span. The emergence of what is termed a third age is run over, and it is suggested that its presence might create a new civilization, one of the features of which might be the absence of enforced idleness due to unemployment.