Sensitivity of medial and lateral knee contact force predictions to frontal plane alignment and contact locations

Musculoskeletal models are increasingly used to estimate medial and lateral knee contact forces, which are difficult to measure in vivo. The sensitivity of contact force predictions to modeling parameters is important to the interpretation and implication of results generated by the model. The purpose of this study was to quantify the sensitivity of knee contact force predictions to simultaneous errors in frontal plane knee alignment and contact locations under different dynamic conditions. We scaled a generic musculoskeletal model for N = 23 subjects’ stature and radiographic knee alignment, then perturbed frontal plane alignment and mediolateral contact locations within experimentally-possible ranges of 10° to −10° and 10 to −10 mm, respectively. The sensitivity of first peak, second peak, and mean medial and lateral knee contact forces to knee adduction angle and contact locations was modeled using linear regression. Medial loads increased, and lateral loads decreased, by between 3% and 6% bodyweight for each degree of varus perturbation. Shifting the medial contact point medially increased medial loads and decreased lateral loads by between 1% and 4% bodyweight per millimeter. This study demonstrates that realistic measurement errors of 5 mm (contact distance) or 5° (frontal plane alignment) could result in a combined 50% BW error in subject specific contact force estimates. We also show that model sensitivity varies between subjects as a result of differences in gait dynamics. These results demonstrate that predicted knee joint contact forces should be considered as a range of possible values determined by model uncertainty.