Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-west European continental shelf |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College, University of the Highlands and Islands, Thurso KW14 7EE, UK;2. Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK;3. NEODAAS-Plymouth, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK;1. Ifremer, DYNECO PELAGOS, F-29280 Plouzané, France;2. IFREMER, Station de Biologie Marine, Place de la Croix, BP 40537, F-29185 Concarneau Cedex, France;3. Normandie University, UNICAEN, 14000 Caen, France;4. UMR BOREA, CNRS-7208, IRD-207, MNHN, UPMC, UCBN, 14032 Caen, France;1. Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 461, SE 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden;2. Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Erik Palménin aukio 1, FI-00560 Helsinki, P.O. Box 140 Helsinki, Finland;3. Ecology and Evolution of Plankton, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121 Napoli, Italy;1. MARETEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal;2. IPMA, Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P., Av. Brasilia, 1449-006 Lisboa, Portugal;3. MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;1. Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland;2. EuroGOOS AISBL, 231 Avenue Louise, Ixelles 1050, Brussels;1. Climate Change Cluster (C3), University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW, 2007, Australia;2. Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Chowder Bay Rd, Mosman, NSW, 2088, Australia;3. Natural Resources Branch, Hornsby Shire Council, Hornsby, NSW, 2077, Australia;4. New South Wales Food Authority, Newington, NSW, 2127, Australia;5. Microalgal Services, Ormond, VIC, 3204, Australia |
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| Abstract: | In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish (Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution. |
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| Keywords: | HAB Harmful algal bloom Particle tracking model Coastal waters Bio-physical model |
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