Social transmission of migratory knowledge: quantifying the risk of losing migratory behavior

When migration is a learned behavior, small populations have a significant problem of maintaining migratory knowledge across generations. These populations risk losing migratory behavior entirely, which may exacerbate existing stressors on population size. Here we investigated the success of various behavioral, demographic, and social factors towards maintaining migration within small populations. Using a discrete-time probabilistic model to simulate repeated migrations, we found that migratory group size plays an important role in maintaining migratory knowledge within the population. Rare, large groups allow for migratory knowledge to be spread to many individuals at once. When a population learns migration information incrementally, the presence of individuals that can learn quickly, therefore transitioning rapidly into leaders, has a profound impact on migrational persistence. Furthermore, small populations are better able to maintain migratory behavior when groups rely on informed leaders as compared to using collective group knowledge, even when that collective knowledge is heavily weighted towards knowledgeable individuals. Finally, we found that both species with short lifespans and species that migrate with fixed group compositions are at especially high risk of losing their migration behavior at small population sizes.