The Effect of Recent Admixture on Inference of Ancient Human Population History

Despite the widespread study of genetic variation in admixed human populations, such as African-Americans, there has not been an evaluation of the effects of recent admixture on patterns of polymorphism or inferences about population demography. These issues are particularly relevant because estimates of the timing and magnitude of population growth in Africa have differed among previous studies, some of which examined African-American individuals. Here we use simulations and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data collected through direct resequencing and genotyping to investigate these issues. We find that when estimating the current population size and magnitude of recent growth in an ancestral population using the site frequency spectrum (SFS), it is possible to obtain reasonably accurate estimates of the parameters when using samples drawn from the admixed population under certain conditions. We also show that methods for demographic inference that use haplotype patterns are more sensitive to recent admixture than are methods based on the SFS. The analysis of human genetic variation data from the Yoruba people of Ibadan, Nigeria and African-Americans supports the predictions from the simulations. Our results have important implications for the evaluation of previous population genetic studies that have considered African-American individuals as a proxy for individuals from West Africa as well as for future population genetic studies of additional admixed populations.STUDIES of archeological and genetic data show that anatomically modern humans originated in Africa and more recently left Africa to populate the rest of the world (Tishkoff and Williams 2002; Barbujani and Goldstein 2004; Garrigan and Hammer 2006; Reed and Tishkoff 2006; Campbell and Tishkoff 2008; Jakobsson et al. 2008; Li et al. 2008). Given the central role Africa has played in the origin of diverse human populations, understanding patterns of genetic variation and the demographic history of populations within Africa is important for understanding the demographic history of global human populations. The availability of large-scale single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data sets coupled with recent advances in statistical methodology for inferring parameters in population genetic models provides a powerful means of accomplishing these goals (Keinan et al. 2007; Boyko et al. 2008; Lohmueller et al. 2009; Nielsen et al. 2009).It is important to realize that studies of African demographic history using genetic data have come to qualitatively different conclusions regarding important parameters. Some recent studies have found evidence for ancient (>100,000 years ago) two- to fourfold growth in African populations (Adams and Hudson 2004; Marth et al. 2004; Keinan et al. 2007; Boyko et al. 2008). Other studies have found evidence of very recent growth (Pluzhnikov et al. 2002; Akey et al. 2004; Voight et al. 2005; Cox et al. 2009; Wall et al. 2009) or could not reject a model with a constant population size (Pluzhnikov et al. 2002; Voight et al. 2005). It is unclear why studies found such different parameter estimates. However, these studies all differ from each other in the amount of data considered, the types of data used (e.g., SNP genotypes vs. full resequencing), the genomic regions studied (e.g., noncoding vs. coding SNPs), and the types of demographic models considered (e.g., including migration vs. not including migration postseparation of African and non-African populations).Another important way in which studies of African demographic history differ from each other is in the populations sampled. Some studies have focused on genetic data from individuals sampled from within Africa (Pluzhnikov et al. 2002; Adams and Hudson 2004; Voight et al. 2005; Keinan et al. 2007; Cox et al. 2009; Wall et al. 2009), while other studies included American individuals with African ancestry (Adams and Hudson 2004; Akey et al. 2004; Marth et al. 2004; Boyko et al. 2008). While there is no clear correspondence between those studies which sampled native African individuals (as opposed to African-Americans) and particular growth scenarios, it is clear from previous studies that African-American populations do differ from African populations in their recent demographic history. In particular, genetic studies suggest that there is wide variation in the degree of European admixture in most African-American individuals in the United States and that they have, on average, ∼80% African ancestry and 20% European ancestry (Parra et al. 1998; Pfaff et al. 2001; Falush et al. 2003; Patterson et al. 2004; Tian et al. 2006; Lind et al. 2007; Reiner et al. 2007; Price et al. 2009; Bryc et al. 2010). Furthermore, both historical records and genetic evidence suggest that the admixture process began quite recently, within the last 20 generations (Pfaff et al. 2001; Patterson et al. 2004; Seldin et al. 2004; Tian et al. 2006). Recent population admixture can alter patterns of genetic variation in a discernible and predictable way. For example, recently admixed populations will exhibit correlation in allele frequencies (i.e., linkage disequilibrium) among markers that differ in frequency between the parental populations. This so-called admixture linkage disequilibrium (LD) (Chakraborty and Weiss 1988) can extend over long physical distances (Lautenberger et al. 2000) and decays exponentially with time the since the admixture process began (i.e., recently admixed populations typically exhibit LD over a longer physical distance than anciently admixed populations).While it is clear that African-American populations have a different recent demographic history than do African populations from within Africa and that admixture tracts can be identified in admixed individuals (Falush et al. 2003; Patterson et al. 2004; Tang et al. 2006; Sankararaman et al. 2008a,b; Price et al. 2009; Bryc et al. 2010), the effect that admixture has on other patterns of genetic variation remains unclear. For example, Xu et al. (2007) found similar LD decay patterns when comparing African-American and African populations. It is also unclear whether the recent admixture affects our ability to reconstruct ancient demographic events (such as expansions that predate the spread of humans out of Africa) from whole-genome SNP data. Most studies of demographic history have summarized the genome-wide SNP data by allele frequency or haplotype summary statistics. If these summary statistics are not sensitive to the recent European admixture, then the African-American samples may yield estimates of demographic parameters that are close to the true demographic parameters for the ancestral, unsampled, African populations. This would suggest that the differences in growth parameter estimates obtained from African populations cannot be explained by certain studies sampling African-American individuals and others sampling African individuals from within Africa. However, if these statistics are sensitive to recent admixture, then they may give biased estimates of growth parameters.Here, we examine the effect of recent admixture on the estimation of population demography. In particular, we estimate growth parameters from simulated data sets using SNP frequencies as well as a recently developed haplotype summary statistic (Lohmueller et al. 2009). We compare the demographic parameter estimates made from the admixed and nonadmixed populations and find that some parameter estimates are qualitatively similar between the two populations when inferred using allele frequencies. Inferences of growth using haplotype-based approaches appear to be more sensitive to recent admixture than inferences based on SNP frequencies. We discuss implications that our results have for interpreting studies of demography in admixed populations.