Modelling parasite aggregation: disentangling statistical and ecological approaches |
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Authors: | Laith Yakob,Ricardo J. Soares Magalhã es,Darren J. Gray,Gabriel Milinovich,Nicola Wardrop,Rebecca Dunning,Jan Barendregt,Franziska Bieri,Gail M. Williams,Archie C.A. Clements |
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Affiliation: | 1. The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;2. University of Southampton, Geography and Environment, Southampton, England, United Kingdom;3. The University of Queensland, School of Biomedical Sciences, St Lucia, Qld, Australia |
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Abstract: | The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts. |
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Keywords: | Mathematical model Infection transmission Intervention MDA Soil transmitted helminths Scenario analysis |
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