The problem of persistence in economic-demographic cycles |
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Authors: | David P Smith |
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Institution: | International Statistical Institute, 35/37 Grosvenor Gardens, London SW1W-OBS, England |
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Abstract: | A continuous model for population cycles developed by Frauenthal is extended to provide further insights into damping and persistence. Values of the cycle magnitude parameter γ which would yield persistent cycles are estimated for a number of populations, and a regression technique is introduced by which γ can be estimated directly from cohort fertility rates. The results imply that cycles in American and other Western fertility since the depression, if present, have been stabilizing in their effects. |
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