Population dynamics of two species of dragon lizards in arid Australia: the effects of rainfall

The population dynamics of two species of agamid (dragon) lizards were studied in the Simpson Desert, central Australia, over a period of 7 years, and modelled in relation to rainfall. Both species have annual life cycles, with adults predominating during the breeding season in spring and summer and juveniles predominating in other seasons. Within years, juvenile abundance in both species in autumn and winter was related most strongly to rainfall in the preceding summer and autumn. This pattern suggests that rainfall enhances survival, growth and possibly clutch size and hatching success. Between years, however, rainfall drove successional change in the dominant plant species in the study area, spinifex Triodia basedowii, causing in turn a shift in the relative abundance of the two species. Thus, the central netted dragon Ctenophorus nuchalis was most numerous in 1990 when vegetation cover was <10%, but declined dramatically in abundance after heavy rainfall at the end of that year. In contrast, the military dragon C. isolepis achieved greatest abundance following heavy rains in the summers of 1990 and 1994, when spinifex cover increased to >20%, and remained numerically dominant for much of the study. We suggest that drought-wet cycles periodically reverse the dominance of the two species of Ctenophorus, and perhaps of other lizard species also, thus enhancing local species diversity over time. Further long-term studies are needed to document the population dynamics of other species, and to identify the factors that influence them. Received: 11 September 1998 / Accepted: 10 February 1999