Succession in a New Zealand alpine cushion community: a Markovian model

A permanent plot in a low-alpine cushion/tussock/shrub community was mapped at ca. decade intervals from 1953 to 1984. Transition probabilities between vegetation types were calculated, and a Markovian model was fitted.In spite of non-stationarity a Markov model was consistent with the observations, and produced reasonable predictions, especially for the major components of the vegetation. The model predictions were conservative in terms of future changes, in that future changes would be smaller than those observed, but such predictions could be supported by independent evidence, such as the nature of the non-stationarity, plant counts and seedling numbers.The general pattern was of a decrease in the cover of both Chionochloa rigida tussocks and mixed turf, and an increase in the cover of cushion bog species, especially Donatia novae-zelandiae. Shrubs, the suggested climax, showed no tendency to increase. Known climatic changes cannot explain the trend, which therefore seems to be a local retrogressive succession. There may be a cycle of alternating cushion and turf.