中国能源消费碳排放的时空特征

选择联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的部门方法和8大类能源,采用1990年至2009年的中国能源统计数据,按照自下而上的思路,对我国各省区的碳排放量进行估算,并从碳排放量、碳排放强度、人均碳排放量和碳排放密指标出发,深入分析了各省区碳排放的时空特征差异。以期对国内碳排放的时空特征分析,有助于决策者和能源分析家提高节能减排政策制定的有效性。

Spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China

Climate change is an issue that is currently under heated discussion. People believe that carbon emissions are closely related to global warming. Therefore, all nations should take responsibility for solving this problem. According to the Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Report, released by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency in 2008, China topped the list of CO₂ emitting countries, accounting for about a quarter of global CO₂ emissions. Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are mainly due to the use of fossil fuels. The amount of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion is an important indicator used to evaluate a country/region's total CO₂ emissions. In China, 76.6% of CO₂ emissions were from fossil fuel combustion, according to China's National Climate Change Programme. Because of global concerns about carbon reduction, high carbon emissions have put great pressure on China's economic development, environmental and ecological protection, and even its international image. Therefore, reducing carbon emissions is not only crucial to China's sustainable development; it is also an urgent international concern. It is important to know how carbon emissions have changed in China to effectively control and reduce carbon emissions from energy consumption.Based on the sectoral approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and eight fuel categories, this paper makes a bottom-up estimate of provincial-level carbon emissions, using data from China from 1990 to 2009. It finds that the values estimated in this paper are higher than in the emission inventory of the International Energy Agency and China's National Climate Change Programme. This paper also analyzes the spatial disparities and temporal changes in carbon emissions, carbon intensity, carbon per capita, and carbon density at the provincial scale. The results show that: 1) An increase in carbon emissions in the past twenty years is a serious problem in China. The spatial pattern of carbon emissions in China has undergone tremendous change over the past two decades. In 2009, there were nine provincial regions in which carbon emissions were extremely heavy; 2) With the steep growth in GDP, carbon intensity decreased year by year. The reduction in emissions was significant in Shanghai and Beijing, with both municipalities exhibiting less than half of the average carbon intensity of China. Furthermore, these cities individually ranked as the antepenultimate and last, respectively, in the annual average growth rate of carbon intensity in 2009; 3) China's low-carbon economy pattern was established in 2009 because of National Development and Reform Commission NDRC's low-carbon pilot projects and low-carbon development plan. Carbon emissions per capita could not be used to evaluate people's living standard and people's occupation of emissions space; 4) Carbon density reflects the difference in carbon emissions per unit area among all of the provincial regions. In 2009, Shanghai's carbon density was highest and Qinghai's was lowest.This paper proposes that the Chinese government should focus on those provincial regions with extra-heavy emissions, and enact policies that improve industrial structure to reduce carbon intensity, use clean energy to lessen carbon emissions per capita, and in the future, to build carbon absorption areas in accordance with carbon density. This analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China can help policy-makers and energy analysts find an effective way to control and reduce emissions.