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Modelling the dynamics of West Nile Virus |
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| Authors: | Gustavo?Cruz-Pacheco Lourdes?Esteva Juan?Antonio?Monta?-Hirose |
| Institution: | (1) IIMAS, UNAM, México, D.F., 04510, Mexico;(2) Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM, México, D.F., 04510, Mexico;(3) Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias, UAEH, Tulancingo, Hgo., 43600, Mexico;(4) Departamento de Control Automático, CINVESTAV-IPN, A.P. 14-740, México, D.F., 07000, Mexico |
| Abstract: | In this work we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection between
vector (mosquito) and avian population. We find the Basic Reproductive Number
in terms of measurable epidemiological and demographic parameters.
is the threshold condition that determines the dynamics of WNV infection: if
the disease fades out, and for
the disease remains endemic. Using experimental and field data we estimate
for several species of birds. Numerical simulations of the temporal course of the infected bird proportion show damped oscillations
approaching the endemic value. |
| Keywords: | |
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