Isotopic (δ2Hf) evidence of “loop migration” and use of the Gulf of Maine Flyway by both western and eastern breeding populations of Blackpoll Warblers

Declining numbers of Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata) have been documented at long‐term migration monitoring sites as well as in breeding areas. However, the “loop migration” of Blackpoll Warblers makes it difficult to ascribe population change at migration monitoring sites to specific breeding populations. Individuals from all populations across the breeding range of Blackpoll Warblers concentrate in fall along the Atlantic coastline of eastern North America prior to initiating a transoceanic flight to wintering areas. In spring, Blackpoll Warblers return along a different route, moving north into the southeastern United States where birds from eastern and western breeding populations then diverge during migration to reach their respective breeding areas. To monitor breeding populations outside of breeding areas and identify factors potentially affecting those populations, we must be able to identify where birds captured during migration breed and map seasonal variation in population‐specific flyways. To “map” population‐specific migration movements of Blackpoll Warblers, we used feather deuterium (δ²H_f) values and a spatially explicit model to assign molt origins of 289 Blackpoll Warblers moving through sites in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) region and at three locations further west and south (northern Great Lakes area, Pennsylvania, and Florida). The assignment method was validated with feather samples from 35 birds captured during the breeding season at Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. As predicted, the spatial pattern of movement within and between seasons reflected “loop migration.” Blackpoll Warblers captured during fall migration in the GOM region included birds from across their breeding range, whereas birds captured during the spring were exclusively from northeastern populations. During fall migration, Blackpoll Warblers captured at two sites west of the GOM were from breeding areas further northwest than those from western Canada that were captured in the GOM. Blackpoll Warblers captured in eastern Florida during spring migration were assigned exclusively to breeding areas in the northeast, suggesting that eastern and western populations diverge soon after entering the United States. Finally, most Blackpoll Warblers sampled at Manomet Bird Observatory originated from breeding populations in Alaska and western Canada that have shown a similar (70–90%) decline over the same period. Our results, therefore, not only document the “loop migration” pattern of Blackpoll Warblers, but, by mapping patterns of connectivity between breeding and non‐breeding areas, may help target conservation efforts for breeding populations of Blackpoll Warblers where most needed.