A new model for predicting time course toxicity of heavy metals based on Biotic Ligand Model (BLM)

A new model for predicting time course toxicity of heavy metals was developed by extending the effective ratio of biotic ligand binding with toxic heavy metals to the total biotic ligand for 50% of test organisms (f₅₀) derived by the Biotic Ligand Model (BLM). BLM has been well-known as a useful model for prediction of heavy metal toxicity. BLM can consider the effect of exposure conditions such as pH and Ca²⁺ on heavy metal toxicity. In addition to the exposure conditions, heavy metal toxicity is strongly dependent on exposure time. In this study, BLM is extended to predict time dependency of heavy metal toxicity by connecting with the concept of primary reaction. The model developed in this study also generates the estimation of the 50% effect concentration (EC₅₀) for toxicologically unknown organisms and heavy metals. Two toxicological and kinetic constants, f_50,0 and k, were derived from the initial value of f₅₀ (f_50,0) and a time constant (k) independent of time. The model developed in this study enables us to acquire information on the toxicity of heavy metals such as Cu, Cd and Co easily.