Modelling noninvasively measured cerebral signals during a hypoxemia challenge: steps towards individualised modelling

Noninvasive approaches to measuring cerebral circulation and metabolism are crucial to furthering our understanding of brain function. These approaches also have considerable potential for clinical use "at the bedside". However, a highly nontrivial task and precondition if such methods are to be used routinely is the robust physiological interpretation of the data. In this paper, we explore the ability of a previously developed model of brain circulation and metabolism to explain and predict quantitatively the responses of physiological signals. The five signals all noninvasively-measured during hypoxemia in healthy volunteers include four signals measured using near-infrared spectroscopy along with middle cerebral artery blood flow measured using transcranial Doppler flowmetry. We show that optimising the model using partial data from an individual can increase its predictive power thus aiding the interpretation of NIRS signals in individuals. At the same time such optimisation can also help refine model parametrisation and provide confidence intervals on model parameters. Discrepancies between model and data which persist despite model optimisation are used to flag up important questions concerning the underlying physiology, and the reliability and physiological meaning of the signals.