Bootstrapped ordination: a method for estimating sampling effects in indirect gradient analysis

Indirect gradient analysis, or ordination, is primarily a method of exploratory data analysis. However, to support biological interpretations of resulting axes as vegetation gradients, or later confirmatory analyses and statistical tests, these axes need to be stable or at least robust into minor sampling effects. We develop a computer-intensive bootstrap (resampling) approach to estimate sampling effects on solutions from nonlinear ordination.We apply this approach to simulated data and to three forest data sets from North Carolina, USA and examine the resulting patterns of local and global instability in detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) solutions. We propose a bootstrap coefficient, scaled rank variance (SRV), to estimate remaining instability in species ranks after rotating axes to a common global orientation. In analysis of simulated data, bootstrap SRV was generally consistent with an equivalent estimate from repeated sampling. In an example using field data SRV, bootstrapped DCA showed good recovery of the order of common species along the first two axes, but poor recovery of later axes. We also suggest some criteria to use with the SRV to decide how many axes to retain and attempt to interpret.Abbreviations DCA= detrended correspondence analysis - SRV= scaled rank variance