Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

Studies on temperature–mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975–1984, 1985–1994 and 1995–2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly (p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of −3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990–2003. The significant number of lags (p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5–2–0), Cuenca (4–2–0), Albacete (4–3–0) and Ciudad Real (3–2–1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.