Information‐theory‐based model selection for determining the main vector and period of transmission of Potato virus Y

Potato virus Y (PVY, genus Potyvirus, family Potyviridae) is transmitted non‐persistently by aphids. It causes major losses in potato production (Solanum tuberosum), especially following seed tuber‐borne infection of plants. To limit the risk of PVY infection, seed potato production is located preferably in regions where vector pressure is low. The northern‐most high‐grade seed potato production area (HG zone) of Europe is in Finland. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of aphid species with documented ability to transmit PVY and to use a modelling approach to determine their relative importance as vectors of PVY in the HG zone of Finland. Winged aphids were caught from six to seven potato fields in each of three growing seasons (2007–09) using yellow pan traps that were examined twice a week. Identification of more than 30 000 individuals indicated that 37% of the aphids belonged to nine species reported to transmit PVY. Incidence of PVY in seed lots was low (0–5.6%) and the seasonal increase of PVY incidence was also low in the potato crops. No potato‐colonising aphids were found on the plants in any of the years. The seasonal increase in PVY incidence was modelled using aphid counts in traps, the relative vector efficiencies of the aphids, virus resistance of cultivars, and the initial infection rate of the seed tubers as explanatory variables in generalised linear mixed modelling. Akaike's information criterion was employed to find the best set of explanatory variables for PVY in harvested tubers. Results of this modelling approach showed that the incidence of seed‐borne PVY infection and the early‐season vector flights are the most important factors contributing to the incidence of PVY in the yield. Compared to models with data from all potential vector species, models containing data from Aphis fabae only showed a better model fit with regard to the incidence of PVY in the harvested tubers. The explanatory power of the models was lost when A. fabae was omitted from the vector data, suggesting that other species play a negligible role as vectors of PVY in the HG zone of Finland. Results can be used to devise appropriate strategies for enhanced control of PVY.