小麦穗期麦长管蚜发生程度的预测模型研究

应用逐步判别分析方法，对山东省金乡县1982—1989年共8年小麦穗期麦长管蚜发生程度的历史观测资料进行了数量分析，建立了判别方程（预测模型）。将历史资料进行回检，符合率为100％，把1990年的观察资料作为独立样本进行试报，结果与实际相吻合。为害虫种群动态的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。

Studies on the forecasting model to the occurrence degree of Macrosiphum avenae (Fabr.) in the ear period of wheat

Analyzing meteorological data of the occurrence degree of Macrosiphum avenae(Fabr.) in 8 years from 1982~1989 at Jin xiang County, Shan dong Province, and applying progressively disenminatory analysis, the authors deduced the discriminatory eqation (forecasting models). The results tested the pest data showed that the fithng rate was 100%, and that accufacy of forecast for 1990 was right. This new method may be also be tried for the forecating of the occurrence degree of insect pests.