Case-based prediction of survival in colorectal cancer patients

OBJECTIVE: To develop an approach to the prediction of survival in patients with colorectal cancer using nearest neighbor analysis and case-based reasoning. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 216 patients with full clinicopathologic records and five-year follow-up were the subjects of this study. They were divided into a core database of 162 cases and a test group of 54 cases, with follow-up on all patients. When the patient was still alive at the end of the follow-up period, censored survival time was used. For each of the test cases, the four closest neighbors from the database were retrieved and their median survival time recorded and used as the predicted estimate of survival. Case matching was based on a Euclidean multivariate distance measure for the three best predictor variables: patient age, Dukes stage and tubule configuration. Cases with the smallest distance from the test case were considered to be the most similar. The predicted survival times for the test cases were compared with the actual, observed survival in the test cases to determine the success of this approach. RESULTS: The results showed reasonable concordance between observed and predicted survival figures, although there was a large degree of spread. Classification of cases into < or = 60 and > 60 months' survival showed a correct classification rate of 63%. For the prediction of survival time, the distribution of differences between observed and predicted survival times for the uncensored test cases had a median value of--5 months but also showed a wide dispersion of values. Correlation of observed and predicted survival times, while not reaching statistical significance at P < .05, did show a strong positive association. CONCLUSION: Case-based approaches to the prediction of survival times in cancer patients are important. The results of the current study illustrate the difficulties in applying this approach to survival data and highlight the complexity of patient information and the inability to accurately predict patient outcome on a small subset of clinicopathologic features. While extensive work needs to be carried out to improve prediction power, this study illustrates the potential for case-based analyses. The ability to retrieve feature-matched cases from hospital patient databases has clear, independent advantages in patient management, but the ability to provide reliable, targeted prognostic estimates on individual cases should be a common goal in medical research.