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基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测赤水蕈树的潜在适宜区
引用本文:文国卫,叶兴状,施晨阳,赖文峰,刘邦友,蒋天雨,朱晓如,张国防.基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测赤水蕈树的潜在适宜区[J].广西植物,2022,42(3):363-372.
作者姓名:文国卫  叶兴状  施晨阳  赖文峰  刘邦友  蒋天雨  朱晓如  张国防
作者单位:福建农林大学 林学院,福州 350002,贵州赤水桫椤国家级自然保护区管理局,贵州 遵义 564700
基金项目:福建农林大学科技创新基金(KFA17069A); 宁夏自治区重点研发计划项目(KJA19H01A); 福州定西水土流失综合治理项目(KH180062A)[ Supported by Science and Technology Innovation Fund of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(KFA17069A); Key Research and Development Project of Ningxia Autonomous Region(KJA19H01A); Fuzhou Dingxi Project of Soil Erosion Comprehensive Control(KH180062A)]。
摘    要:赤水蕈树(Altingia multinervis)具有较高的经济和药用价值,但由于气候变化和人类活动的强烈干扰,使其野生种质资源已近枯竭,被列为国家二级保护植物.为重建末次间冰期以来赤水蕈树地理分布格局变化过程、了解环境因子对潜在适宜区的制约机制,为赤水蕈树及其周围野生动植物的栖息地保护和引种栽培提供可靠的科学依据,...

关 键 词:赤水蕈树  MaxEnt模型  潜在适生区  环境因子  避难所
收稿时间:2021/5/9 0:00:00

Potential suitable area of Altingia multinervis predicted by optimizated MaxEnt model
WEN Guowei,YE Xingzhuang,SHI Chenyang,LAI Wenfeng,LIU Bangyou,JIANG Tianyu,ZHU Xiaoru,ZHANG Guofang.Potential suitable area of Altingia multinervis predicted by optimizated MaxEnt model[J].Guihaia,2022,42(3):363-372.
Authors:WEN Guowei  YE Xingzhuang  SHI Chenyang  LAI Wenfeng  LIU Bangyou  JIANG Tianyu  ZHU Xiaoru  ZHANG Guofang
Institution:1. College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; 2. Guizhou Chishui Alsophila National Nature Reserve administration, Zunyi 564700, Guizhou, China
Abstract:Altingia multinervis has been listed as a second-class protected plant in China., with high economic and medicinal values. However, its wild germplasm resources have been nearly exhausted due to the strong disturbance of climate change and human activities. Here, we aim to simulate the changes in the geographical distribution pattern of A. multinervis since the last interglacial(LIG)and to explore how climatic factors restrict the potential suitable areas, to provide a reliable scientific basis for habitat protection and cultivation of A. multinervis and its surrounding wildlife. In this study, based on optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, we simulated the potential suitable areas of A. multinervis and its spatial change pattern. The importance of environmental factors that constrains current geographical distribution was evaluated by percent contribution(PC), permutation importance(PI)and Jackknife test. The results were as follows:(1)The prediction accuracy of the optimized MaxEnt model was extremely high, as indicated by the value of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve over 0.97. The potential suitable areas of A. multinervis for the present distribution were mainly distributed in the Yangtze River basin at the junction of Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing, of which the best suitable area was around Chishui River basin in Guizhou. The key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of A. multinervis were mean diurnal range(bio2), annual precipitation(bio12), seasonality of precipitation(bio15)and range of annual temperature(bio7).(2)The potential middle-high suitable area of A. multinervis in current was 2.692 6×104 km2, in last interglacial(LIG)was 2.277 3×104 km2, in the mid-Holocene(MH)was 2.831×104 km2, in four future scenarios were 2.159 6×104 km2(2050s RCP2.6), 2.605 1×104 km2(2050s RCP8.5), 2.330 4×104 km2(2070s RCP2.6), 2.460 4×104 km2(2070s RCP8.5), respectively.(3)Under the four future discharge scenarios, the newly increased area of A. multinervis was concentrated in Sichuan and Guizhou, while it was concentrated in Chongqing in the mid-Holocene. All the above results indicate that the distribution range of A. multinervis is narrow and the potential suitable area is very small, and the unique topographic advantage of Chishui River Basin may be the main refuge place of A. multinervis.
Keywords:Altingia multinervis  MaxEnt model  potential suitable area  environmental factors  refuge
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