哈尔滨郊区人为鼠疫疫源地鼠类种群动态分析

根据黑龙江省哈尔滨市郊区人为鼠疫疫源地1952～1996 年达乌尔黄鼠密度监测资料,建立了黄鼠密度的自回归模型D_t=0.1374+1.130 2D_t-1-0.4754D_t-2+0.8033D_t-3-0.4680D_t-4 , 对1997～2000 年的密度进行了预测。1952～1980 年, 人工捕黄鼠率极为显著地影响黄鼠密度(P<0.001)。在该地区, 1982～1996年共捕啮齿动物6种, 其中黄鼠和大仓鼠为野外优势种, 褐家鼠为室内优势种, 其余为常见种。大仓鼠、黑线仓鼠、黑线姬鼠均与夜行鼠总捕获率正相关(P<0.01),逐步回归模型为总捕获率=0.5219+1.1733 大仓鼠+10312 黑线仓鼠+ 1.1273小家鼠+ 0.9242 褐家鼠(P<0.0001)。黄鼠密度与捕获率不相关(P>0.10)。

ANALYSIS ON POPULATION DYNAMICS OF RODENTS IN MAN-MADE PLAGUE FOCUSES OF HAERBIN SUBURBS

According to the population of the rodents in man-made plague focuses of Haerbin suburbs, Heilongjiang Province of China in 1952-996, the autoregression model of density of Spermophilus dauricus was obtained using time sequence method, i.e. D_t = 0.1374+1.1302D_t-1－0.4754D_t-2+ 0.8033D_t-3－0.4680D_t-4. And the forecasting densities of them were given in 1997-2000. The densities of S. dauricus were influenced very significantly by the artificial rodenticide rates of them (P<0.001) in 1952-1980. There were six rodent species in this region from 1982-1996, with S. dauricus and Cricetulus triton as the outdoor dominant species, and Rattus norvegicus as the indoor. And the common species were others. There existed positive correlation relationship between the catch rate of night rodent and C. triton, and C. barabensis, and Apodemus agrarius respectively (P < 0.01). The stepwise regression model was (the catch rate of night rodent)= 0.5219+1.1733 (C. triton) +1.0312 (C. barabensis) +1.1273 (Mus musculus)+0.9242 (R. norvegi cus ) (P<0.0001). There was not relationship between the density of S. dauricus and the catch rate of night rodent (P >0.10).