Bushfire incidence,fire hazard and fuel reduction burning

Daily routine 3 p.m. meteorological data for Melbourne, Victoria, were processed to provide estimates of maximum forest fire danger index (including soil-water deficit), potential number of days for failure of fire suppression for given quantities of fuel, and potential number of days for optimal prescribed fuel reduction burning in eucalypt forests given the same quantities of fuel. Although two models for estimating soil dryness gave widely different results, the effect of these differences on the value of the McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI) was relatively small overall. However, over the 28 years of record, the number of ‘extreme’ days given using the Mount dryness index was 50% greater than that given by the Keetch-Byram index. The number of forest fires in Victoria (as a whole) was found to be related to 3 p.m. FFDI (for Melbourne) and to the incidence of weekends or public holidays. Potentially, bushfires near Melbourne would be ‘uncontrollable’; that is, with an intensity greater than 4000 kW m^-1 on level ground, on an average of about 100 days per year (at 3 p.m.) if ignition were to occur where litter fuel weights were about 301 ha^-1. However, if fuel weights were less than 81 ha^-1, the potential number of ‘uncontrollable’ fires would be near zero. Using equations to predict conditions ideally suited to safe fuel reduction burning at 3 p.m. the average number of appropriate days per year increased from zero at a fuel weight of near 71 ha^-1 to a maximum of 14 at 15 t ha^-1. The extent to which the models used in this study are accurate is arguable so further work is needed.