Goodness of Fit of Probability Distributions for Sightings as Species Approach Extinction |
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Authors: | Richard M Vogel Jonathan R M Hosking Chris S Elphick David L Roberts J Michael Reed |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, 247-667, India;(2) Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247-667, Uttarakhand, India;(3) Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247-667, Uttarakhand, India |
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Abstract: | Estimating the probability that a species is extinct and the timing of extinctions is useful in biological fields ranging
from paleoecology to conservation biology. Various statistical methods have been introduced to infer the time of extinction
and extinction probability from a series of individual sightings. There is little evidence, however, as to which of these
models provide adequate fit to actual sighting records. We use L-moment diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient
(PPCC) hypothesis tests to evaluate the goodness of fit of various probabilistic models to sighting data collected for a set
of North American and Hawaiian bird populations that have either gone extinct, or are suspected of having gone extinct, during
the past 150 years. For our data, the uniform, truncated exponential, and generalized Pareto models performed moderately well,
but the Weibull model performed poorly. Of the acceptable models, the uniform distribution performed best based on PPCC goodness
of fit comparisons and sequential Bonferroni-type tests. Further analyses using field significance tests suggest that although
the uniform distribution is the best of those considered, additional work remains to evaluate the truncated exponential model
more fully. The methods we present here provide a framework for evaluating subsequent models. |
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Keywords: | L-moments Extinct birds Field significance test Biological records Extirpation |
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