Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change |
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Authors: | Jake M. Alexander Loïc Chalmandrier Jonathan Lenoir Treena I. Burgess Franz Essl Sylvia Haider Christoph Kueffer Keith McDougall Ann Milbau Martin A. Nuñez Aníbal Pauchard Wolfgang Rabitsch Lisa J. Rew Nathan J. Sanders Loïc Pellissier |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland;2. Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland;3. Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland;4. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;5. UR ?Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés? (EDYSAN, FRE 3498 CNRS‐UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France;6. Centre for Phytophthora Science and Management, School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia;7. Division of Conservation, Landscape and Vegetation Ecology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria;8. Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany;9. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany;10. Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Victoria, Australia;11. Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium;12. Grupo de Ecología de Invasiones, INIBIOMA, CONICET, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Argentina;13. Laboratorio de Invasiones Biológicas (LIB), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile;14. Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Concepción, Chile;15. Department Biodiversity & Nature Conservation, Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria;16. Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA;17. The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA;18. Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark;19. Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA |
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Abstract: | Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. |
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Keywords: | alpine ecosystems biotic interactions climate change climatic debt migration novel interactions range dynamics range expansion |
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