The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees |
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| Authors: | Leon Marshall Jacobus C Biesmeijer Pierre Rasmont Nicolas J Vereecken Libor Dvorak Una Fitzpatrick Frédéric Francis Johann Neumayer Frode Ødegaard Juho P T Paukkunen Tadeusz Pawlikowski Menno Reemer Stuart PM Roberts Jakub Straka Sarah Vray Nicolas Dendoncker |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geography, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium;2. Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands;3. Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands;4. Laboratoire de Zoologie, Research institute of Biosciences, University of Mons, Mons, Belgium;5. Agroecology and Pollination Group, Landscape Ecology & Plant Production Systems (LEPPS/EIB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium;6. Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně, Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic;7. National Biodiversity Data Centre, Beechfield House, Carriganore WIT West Campus, County Waterford, Ireland;8. Unit of Functional and Evolutionary Entomology, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech, University of Liège, Gembloux, Belgium;9. Independent Researcher, Elixhausen, Austria;10. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research – NINA, Trondheim, Norway;11. Finnish Museum of Natural History, Zoology Unit, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland;12. Chair of Ecology and Biogeography, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland;13. European Invertebrate Survey (EIS), Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands;14. Centre for Agri‐Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK;15. Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague 2, Czech Republic |
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| Abstract: | Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate‐only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species‐specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. |
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| Keywords: | biodiversity loss dynamic future land use change scenarios pollinators projections species distribution models (SDMs) wild bees |
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