水资源投入产出方法研究进展

从扩展建模技术、系数调整2条线索回顾国内外的水资源投入产出研究进展, 并讨论水资源的投入产出研究的不足和发展趋势。因为水资源投入产出表反映的是水资源与经济结构的关系,如果研究人员自己编制一张水资源投入产出表是不容易的事情。通常情况下都是以研究地域的投入产出表为基础,与其他模型相结合来研究水资源投入产出,但是水资源投入产出建模技术因为数据的限制而只能建立年度模型,具有很强的前提假定,使得投入产出建模技术缺乏灵活性,因而在运用中有对模型改进的必要。水资源投入产出扩展建模技术在这些方面就分别形成了与地区投入产出表结合的投入产出建模技术、与水资源供给相结合的投入产出扩展建模技术、与延长表结合的投入产出扩展建模技术。时效性缺乏一直就成为影响IO模型研究的最主要的瓶颈之一,为此,对各种用于建立新的 IO 表技术的研究一直受到普遍的重视。目前, IO 表系数调整方法已从消耗系数不变的系数调整方法、以RAS为代表的比例法, 发展到多种手段相结合的优化法。算法的改进和求解非线性规划问题的大量计算机软件的出现使得非线性优化模型得到了广泛的应用。

Progress on water resources input-output analysis

Researches on input and output at home and abroad are divided into two parts. One part is about researches in application of the input-output table and the modeling techniques; the other is about methods of IO table or modeling research. Quite a number of application researches have been done in China, but within not so many fields as researches in other countries, although there are relatively more discussion and researches in modeling methods. The paper reviews the development of researches in input and output of water resources at home and abroad through the clues of extended modeling techniques and method updates, and discusses shortcomings and the development trend of researches in input and output of water resources.Because the IO table of water resources reflects the relationship between water resources and the economical structure, it is not an easy job for researchers to draw up such a table. The normal case is that researches in input and output of water resources are carried out with combination of study areas' IO tables and other models. Modeling techniques of input-output of water resources have advantages to solve structural problems. It excels in solving problems of the industrial structure, distribution structure and consumption structure of water resources. But with high degree of presupposition, the techniques can only be utilized to make annual modes owing to datalimitation, and this further exposes inflexibility of modeling techniques of input-output of water resources. So it is necessary to do some modification to models in the actual application. Three types of extended modeling techniques of input-output are formed by combining extended modeling techniques of input-output of water resources respectively with local IO tables, supply of water resources and extended tables. Because there must be a lot of input of human power, materials and time for formulation of an IO table, it is neither possible nor necessary to draw up such a table each year. Even in the year of table formulation, publication of IO tables will usually lag behind for two to four years. Therefore, lack of timeliness has been always one of the main bottlenecks to influence researches in IO models, and researches in techniques of upgrading and establishing IO tables are generally much valued. Nowadays, the upgrading methods have developed from the method with unchanged consumption coefficients and scaling methods like RAS to multiple methods. With the improvement of computing methods and appearance of a large number of computer software targeted at nonlinear programming problems non-linear optimization models, non-linear optimization models are greatly used. In summary, the existing methods to upgrade IO tables are mainly statistical methods, optimization methods and analytical methods of macro-economy. Based on input and output of water resources, one of the hot research areas in ecological economy, the paper summarizes problems existing in the current researches in input and output of water resources and issues needed to be further explored after all-round review. Researches in input and output of water resources are gradually deepening in data utilization and research focus. But there exist shortcomings and deficiency for the method of input and output of water resources. New researches in framework design and relationship between water resources and economic growth and expansion of research background will not only open up new areas of researches in input and output of water resources, but gaps will also be filled in China's researches in input and output of water resources.