Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method |
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| Authors: | Xiankui Zeng Xiaobin Zhu Lachun Wang Xinqing Zou |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;2. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTA groundwater field is a complex and open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. The conceptual model (model struture) is one of the main sources of groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, the mean Euclidean distance (MED) between model simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of a conceptual model in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) BMA method by a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging model structure mean Euclidean distance |
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