Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV,Kenya |
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Authors: | Stephen Gikonyo Tabitha Kimani Joseph Matere Joshua Kimutai Stella G. Kiambi Austine O. Bitek K. J. Z. Juma Ngeiywa Yilma J. Makonnen Astrid Tripodi Subhash Morzaria Juan Lubroth Gabriel Rugalema Folorunso Oludayo Fasina |
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Affiliation: | 1.Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases – (ECTAD) Kenya, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),UN Office in Nairobi,Gigiri,Kenya;2.Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases – (ECTAD), Regional Office for East Africa Kenya, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),UN Office in Nairobi,Gigiri,Kenya;3.Directorate of Veterinary Services, State Department of Livestock,Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries,Nairobi,Kenya;4.Animal Health Service, Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO),Rome,Italy;5.Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,South Africa |
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Abstract: | Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels. |
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