Decline of dark coniferous stands in Baikal Region

The reasons for the decline in Siberian pine and fir in the Baikal Region (Khamar-Daban) were analyzed using remote sensing techniques, dendrochronology and GIS-technology methods, and in situ observations. It is found that a decrease in the value of the growth index (R ² = 0.69) and an decrease in the SPEI drought index (Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index) (R ² = 0.72) has been observed since the 1980s. In the mid-2000s, the increase in aridity led to the division of Siberian pine trees into two cohorts: “survivors” and “decliners.” The spatial distribution of these cohorts is different: dead and declining stands are localized mainly on relief elements with increased risk of water stress (steep and convex slopes of southwestern exposure). The growth index of the trees is closely related to the dryness index in June (r ² = 0.55). Along with water stress, declining trees were also exposed to stem pests and plant pathogens. The primary cause of Siberian pine decline is water stress due to the increasing climate aridity. The weakened waterstressed trees were sensitized to pathogens. The synergism of climatic and biotic effects led to the decline of Siberian pine stands. On the whole, heavily damaged and declining stands (over 50% of dead and declining trees) within the Khamar-Daban ridge are 8–10% of the total area of dark coniferous forests.