Risk assessment issues in breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy affecting women, and its incidence has been increasing in many countries. The aetiology of breast cancer is poorly understood, so there is concern as to which factors in our environment or lifestyle are responsible for the increase. There is a need for reliable risk assessment, which involves the steps of hazard identification, hazard evaluation, exposure evaluation and risk estimation. Short-term laboratory tests and long-term tests in animals are useful for priority-setting, but quantitative human risk assessment should preferably involve observations of humans. Epidemiological studies vary in the degree of reliance that can be placed on their results. The main types of epidemiological investigation are illustrated by recent examples from the literature on breast cancer. Careful judgement is required in assessing whether any association between a factor and a disease is likely to be causal. The injectable contraceptive, depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA, ‘Depo-Provera’), has been controversial because it caused malignant mammary tumours in beagle dogs. Two recent case-control studies found no overall association between DMPA and the risk of breast cancer in women. There was some evidence of increased risk in certain sub-groups of women, which could be interpreted with more confidence if there were a better understanding of the biology of human breast cancer. Nevertheless, the results do not support the prediction from beagle experiments that DMPA might increase the overall risk of breast cancer.