生态服务功能的动态货币化评价——以南水北调后的湖北省襄樊市为例

生态环境是和社会经济紧密联系、相互影响的复杂大系统 ,且其内部各因子之间存在大量的未知关系 ,神经网络为未知复杂系统的建模提供了一条全新的思路。运用 BP网络 ,就南水北调对湖北省襄樊市生态服务功能价值的影响进行了动态研究。研究显示 ,在调走约 1/3汉江水量后 ,襄樊的生态环境将受到严重的破坏 ,其后果是当地社会经济的可持续发展能力将受到损害和抑制。在分析案例的基础上 ,论证了神经网络在生态建模中的适用性 ,探讨了生态服务功能价值动态评价的技术趋势 ,并进一步提出了生态系统建模的新思路。

Dynamic assessment of ecosystem service value:a case study of Xiangfan,Hubei Province after the project of south to north water transfer project in China

The services of ecological environment are critical to socio-economy by underpinning human welfare.Currently, how to dynamically predict ecosystem service value (ESV) is a multidisciplinary sharp-edge issue in the research field of sustainable development. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) has been proved to perform better than many classical modeling methods in an increasing number of applications in ecological modeling.However, too few applications have been reported in ecological economics. In this paper...