Annual predictions of the peak numbers of Sitobion avenae infesting winter wheat

Sitobion avenae is the most abundant aphid that infests the ears of winter wheat in central Europe. Control of this pest will benefit from prediction of its maximum abundances on ears. We attempted to predict the maximum numbers of this species infesting the ears using earlier counts of this species in ears and on leaves using data collected in the Czech Republic in 2002–2014. The numbers of aphids on particular leaves and the ears were recorded at weekly intervals. The maximum numbers infesting the ears were significantly related to aphid counts on the ears made 1 week, 2 weeks and even 3 weeks before the peak. A regression based only on plots where there were aphids (non‐zero aphid counts) recorded 3 weeks prior to the peak resulted in a critical number of ≥0.44 aphids/ear, which if exceeded resulted in a harmful maximum abundance of ≥5 aphids/ear at the peak. We also regressed maximum numbers infesting ears on numbers of S. avenae on leaves recorded 1, 2 and 3 weeks after earing, which all resulted in reliable predictions. Regression of maximum abundance on non‐zero aphid counts on the leaves in week 3 after earing revealed a critical number of ≥0.59 aphids/tiller. Zero aphid counts resulted in only 3% of cases of a harmful maximum abundance in ears. Using records of the numbers on flag leaves, which make up 58% of the S. avenae population present on the foliage, also provided reliable predictions of maximum abundance in ears. Predicting maximum numbers of aphids from earlier records of the numbers of aphids on leaves or ears is thus possible. The prediction may be further improved by increasing the precision with which the numbers of aphids initially infesting the crop are estimated.