Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the U.K.: the use of the back projection method

Back projection methods are used to predict the yearly number of new AIDS diagnoses and the number of new HIV infections, to the end of 1992. The AIDS, but not the HIV, predictions are insensitive to the choice of incubation period distribution. A wide range of predictions is consistent with the AIDS diagnoses in years up to 1987, but limited ancillary information on the relative rates of new HIV infection in 1984 to 1987 can be used to narrow this range. The range of prediction based on AIDS reports to the end of 1988 is lower and narrower than the range based on reports to the end of 1987. The number of new AIDS cases in 1992 appears likely to fall in the range 1000-3000.